Academic award certificate

Total employment is projected to increase by 22.2 million jobs over the 2000-10 period, rising to 167.8 million, according to the latest projections of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This increase represents about a million more jobs than were added over the previous 10-year period (1990-2000). The projected 15.2-percent increase, however, is less than the 17.1-percent increase of the previous 10-year period. (1) Self employed is projected to grow from 11.5 to 11.7 million, or 1.7 percent.

The economy will continue generating jobs for workers at all levels of education and training, although growth rates are projected to be faster, on average, for occupations generally requiring a postsecondary award (a vocational certificate or other award or an associate or higher degree), than for occupations requiring less education or training. Most new jobs, however, will arise in occupations that require only work-related training (on-the-job training or work experience in a related occupation), even though these occupations are projected to grow more slowly, on average. This reflects the fact that these occupations accounted for about 7 out of 10 jobs in 2000.

This article discusses a number of aspects of the 2000-2010 projections along with related information:

* changes in the structure of employment at the major occupational group level;

* the detailed occupations that are projected to grow fastest as well as those with the largest numerical increases and decreases, along with their current educational or training requirements and earnings;

* the total job openings projected to occur due to growth in the economy and the net replacement needs resulting from workers who leave the labor force or transfer to other occupations; and

* the distribution of employment in 2000 and projected 2000-10 job openings by level of education or training.

In this article, projected employment is analyzed from two perspectives--percent change and numerical change--because one can be large and the other small, depending on the size of employment in the base year. The following example, using data for two occupations generally requiring the same level of education--a bachelor's degree--serves to illustrate the importance of viewing job outlook from both perspectives. Employment of physician assistants numbered only 58,000 in 2000, and despite rapid projected growth over the 2000-10 period (53.5 percent), this occupation will add only 31,000 jobs. In contrast, employment of elementary school teachers, except special education, was 1,532,000 in 2000; while employment is expected to grow by only 13 percent, the number of new jobs over the 2000-10 period will total 202,000-nearly 7 times as many as for physician assistants.

Major occupational groups

Among the major occupational groups, employment in the two largest in 2000--professional and related occupations and service occupations--will increase the fastest and add the most jobs from 2000 to 2010. (See table 1.) These major groups, which are on opposite ends of the educational attainment and earnings spectrum, are expected to provide more than half of the total job growth from 2000 to 2010. Employment in transportation and material moving occupations is projected to grow as fast as overall employment; management, business, and financial occupations; construction and extraction occupations; sales and related occupations; and installation, maintenance, and repair occupations will grow somewhat more slowly. The three slowest growing groups, all under 10 percent, are office and administrative support occupations; production occupations; and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations.

As a result of the different growth rates among the major occupational groups, the occupational distribution of total employment will change somewhat by the year 2010, but the relative ranking of the groups by employment size is not expected to change. Professional and related occupations will continue to rank first, while farming, fishing, and forestry occupations will continue to rank last. Only two groups will increase their relative share of employment--professional and related occupations and service occupations. (See table 1.)

The growth of occupational groups (and occupations) is determined, in large part, by growth in the industries in which they are concentrated. For example, professional occupations are projected to grow the fastest, in large part because they are concentrated in some fast-growing services industries, while production occupations are projected to grow more slowly than overall employment, largely because nearly 3 out of 4 are in the slow growing manufacturing sector. (2)

The number of management, business, and financial workers is projected to grow by 2.1 million from 2000 to 2010. Nearly a quarter of all job growth will be in business services industries, where these occupations should grow the fastest. About 354,000 new jobs are projected for rapidly growing engineering and management services and 238,000 for finance, insurance, and real estate. Slow growth is projected for government, except State and local education and hospitals, and for manufacturing, with relatively few new jobs in each--60,000 and 104,000, respectively. (3) Overall projected growth among management, business, and financial workers also is affected by the decline of farmers and ranchers by 328,000. (See table 2.) Almost all farmers and ranchers are self-employed, causing self-employment in this major occupational group to decline. However, because of growing self-employment in other management, business, and financial occupations, the overall decline in self-employed is expected to be only 97,000. Excluding farmers and ranchers, management, business, and financial occupations are projected to increase 17.2 percent; the self-employed, excluding farmers and ranchers, is projected to increase 14.6 percent.

Employment in professional and related occupations is projected to grow faster and add more workers (7 million) than any other major group. In terms of employment share, professional and related occupations are expected to experience the largest increase, rising from 18.4 percent of total employment in 2000 to 20.1 percent in 2010. Three industry groups--business services; education, public and private; and health services--each will account for about a fifth of all growth. Another fifth is projected for the rest of services, including engineering and management, social, and legal services. Relatively slow growth is projected for government, except State and local education and hospitals, and for manufacturing, with 235,000 and 176,000 new jobs, respectively. Nearly three-quarters of the job growth for professional and related is projected for three subgroups--computer and mathematical occupations; health care practitioners and technical occupations; and education, training, and library occupations. A 10.3-percent increase is projected for self-employed professional and related occupations. Most growth among self-employed is projected for two subgroups--arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations; and computer and mathematical occupations.

Computer and mathematical occupations are projected to add the most jobs, 2 million, and grow the fastest among the eight professional and related occupations subgroups. (See table 2.) The demand for computer-related occupations will continue to increase as a result of the rapid advances in computer technology and the continuing demand for new computer applications, including those for the Internet and intranets. Three out of five new jobs will be in the rapidly growing business services industries--primarily in computer and data processing services, where employment of computer and mathematical occupations is projected to more than double. In addition, in almost all industries, employment of these workers is projected to grow significantly faster than the average for all occupations. Self-employed workers are expected to increase 51.2 percent.

Health care practitioners and technical occupations are projected to add 1.6 million jobs, as the demand for health care services continues to grow rapidly. Nearly 3 out of 4 new jobs for workers in these occupations should be in the health services industry. Growth will be slower in government, except State and local education and hospitals. Registered nurses, by far the largest occupation in this group, should account for more than a third of all new jobs. The number of self-employed workers in this group is projected to decline somewhat. Self-employed physicians, dentists, and optometrists are expected to decline, mainly due to the shift of employment into incorporated group practices, while self-employed chiropractors, registered nurses, and therapists are projected to grow.