Desktop computer barebones

IBM's Blue Linux on the Desktop

Although nobody has been able to smuggle out a single screenshot of the top-secret IBM Linux desktop OSoften referred to as Blue LinuxI have friends who have seen it. I am assured that it not only exists, but is being used by large numbers of IBMers. "They are going through a process of eating their own dog food right now," I was told.

The bad news is that the company may sit on the OS for up to two years before actually releasing it. I saw a gossip item about this, and an IBM insider confirmed the self-imposed delay to me. Can IBM be pushed onto a faster track with this product? Someone had better do that.

I'd guess the OS has already been smuggled out into the real world. It's just a matter of time before a copy turns up on some forum. I'm certain the recent announcement by Microsoft that its Unix tools will now be free has something to do with the IBM Linux Desktop OS. By getting people dependent on these tools before IBM rolls out any sort of Linux offering, Microsoft can find some unique ways to lock out or marginalize the IBM product. Over the years, IBM has been humiliated time and time again by failing to see Microsoft marketing maneuvers coming, and there is no reason to suspect this will end anytime soon.

Why is a desktop version of Linux a good idea? Because the software scene is slowly stagnating under the dominance of a very few vendors who have top loaded their pricing to such an extent that users are spending far more on software than hardware. Hardware prices have dropped dramatically over the past 25 years, while software prices have increased. Now that the public has been cowed into accepting various software activation schemes, more and more money is being extracted from hapless users at monopolistic prices. No tire kicking allowed any more.

I was at Costco the other day, and Microsoft Windows XP upgrades were $185. Why should an upgrade to the OS cost so much? The full version, if you can find it, lists at $299. While Microsoft Windows XP offers users an agreeable standard platform, when you can get a barebones computer for less than the OS, spending this much money is hard to rationalize.

Steve Ballmer is behind these prices. He's a high-price maven. When Microsoft was developing OS/2, he was talking about these sorts of prices. He has all sorts of rationales for such schemes, usually revolving around development costs. The problem is that on the day of release, the development costs are paid off. The rest is gravy.

Windows XP should sell for $29 not $299. This is why Linux has to be put on the fast track. Users cannot pay never-ending forced tributes to Microsoft as if it were the Roman Empire and we its slaves. Right now, the Linux alternative needs some consolidation. To continue my History Channel analogy, there needs to be a Genghis Khan of Linux uniting the warring tribes into one unstoppable force. IBM has the potential to do this.

IBM has tried everything to get Microsoft off the desktop. It tried OS/2, and was outflanked by Microsoft. It attempted to create a new platform based on a non-Intel chip. That went nowhere. It tried going heavily into Java, which had zero effect on Microsoft. Now it's going with Linux. If IBM were to roll out Blue Linux, numerous good things would happen for Linux.

First, the OS would be taken more seriously and would also appear to have a nexus of support. The move could stabilize application file formats (if that is even possible). It would force Microsoft to compete on both quality and price. While Microsoft enjoyed its shallow victory over Netscape by giving away a browser, company officials have not been pleased to see the same strategy employed against ithence all the anti-Linux rants from Microsoft and all the tacit support for troublemaker SCO. Much of the complaining will fall on deaf ears if IBM rolls out Blue Linux tomorrow.

That said, Microsoft is still smarter than IBM. No IBM strategy has ever managed to even slow the Microsoft juggernaut. And now, by sitting on the Linux Desktop OS, IBM is just giving Microsoft the time it needs to figure out a strategy to submarine Big Blue once again. IBM has never grasped the concept of momentum. The executives there should watch some football games to understand it. I'm guessing that even if the company had momentum, it wouldn't know what to do with it. This appears to be more true than ever.

My prediction: Longhorn will be $350, and we'll just pay tribute once again while IBM wonders how Microsoft gets away with it.

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