Notebook computer store

It's that time when editors and pundits make bold predictions about what may happen during the year. Now Nostradamus I am not, but I did attend six IT-related conferences in Las Vegas last year so I'm willing to roll the dice on a few predictions. Here goes ...

I fear the blank media levy folks will get the better of us. The Copyright Board of Canada may have frozen all tariffs, but the recording industry will cry poor some time during this year and force another rate hike. In better news, Celine Dion is too busy counting her media levy money to record again.

I believe Canadian Alliance Against Software Theft (CAAST) will make a difference in 2004 and slightly cut the piracy rate in Canada. The piracy rate has increased over the years, but CAAST educational programs administered by the channel will lead to more compliance.

Notebook computing will continue to rise. Given the success of Centrino, I see another great year for notebook sales. Also, system builders will make more notebooks, increasing market penetration.

Desktop PCs will become expensive! As people continue to buy more notebooks, the average selling price will drop for laptops. Apple make a bold move and increase the price on iMacs. Given the dynamics of supply and demand, Dell and the rest will follow suit.

I believe CRM will again be a big seller but not in the way most companies think. Enterprise class software developers will continue to provide solutions for the small-to medium size business market in Canada, but without any real success. SMBs will stick with brand recognition and purchase CRM solutions from Microsoft and Accpac (pending the Best acquisition) because they recognize those names better than Oracle, SAP, PeopleSoft and others.

Cellphones that pose as digital cameras will lose their impact. Owners will stop using them to take photos and return to using mobile devices to speak to people.

Multifunction printers will outpace printer sales. Name me the biggest growth segment in peripherals: End of story.

VARs who survived 2003 will make money in 2004. This is the ole Vegas luck of the draw prediction. Those VARs who have survived this far are already making money.

Utility and autonomic computing will continue to grow as a top-flight solution. With the "less is more" philosophy in most IT manager heads these days, look for these types of computing solutions to continue to make more headway in 2004. Grids, on the other hand, will not. They'll make inroads in 2005.

Linux will take another slow step in marketshare growth. It has to. It has virtually no marketing muscle. Can you imagine how big Linux would be today if the marketing mavens at Microsoft had open source to peddle? I shudder at the thought.

The government year-end will not be a big deal to the channel. A new prime minister usually means new rules. Paul Martin may decide to tighten the belt this March.

There will not be a significant virus in 2004. I remember when the first big virus hit, "Jerusalem," back maybe more than 10 years ago. It had very little impact. Since then viruses, worms and blended threats have wreaked havoc on business and individual users. Even I was hit for the first time this year with SoBig. That is why I am predicting a clean 2004. They finally got me.