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Boom times they perhaps aren't quite, except maybe in the real estate market, but Bennington County is beginning to show signs of a true economic recovery.

Almost two counties in their economic personalities, the Southshire and Northshire are both seeing positive effects from perceptions outside the state that Vermont offers a higher quality of life. Around Bennington and North Bennington, that may be translating into business expansions, particularly those related to the nearby Albany region. Around Manchester, Dorset, Stratton and other towns, second home development has boosted everything from outlet shopping to year-round resort plans to art sales.

As elsewhere in the state, there is the question whether powerful economic forces will perceive opportunities and muscle in to take advantage, in the process seriously affecting what was there beforehand. Specifically, Wal-Mart's strategy of creating superstores, which compete as groceries as well as discount department stores, has sparked intense debates comparable to those taking place in St. Albans and Middlebury.

But some other large-scale developments are seen in a more positive light. Huge infusions of money into recreational facilities like the Equinox Hotel and the Stratton Resort, and in Bennington the arrival of a microtechnology center and a tropical plant conservatory, are viewed more at investments in infrastructure, likely to bring dollars in rather than siphon them away.

Developments in the transportation area are likely to have a profound effect on a county that has for many years felt somewhat cut off from the rest of Vermont ("We're part of New York when we need to be," remarked one development official.) The Bennington Bypass, controversial like other large-scale projects around the state that to smaller towns seem to be aggregating too much of the budget, will open its first quadrant this fall, and getting more funding is sure to be a hot topic in the Legislature.

Passenger rail service, too, might help make Bennington County fulfill its promise of being a gateway to Vermont, if federal legislation now on the books isn't revised to reflect deficits and wartime demands. "Gateway" is the popular metaphor; but perhaps "membrane," implying a zone of transference that attempts to keep the wrong things out while bringing the right things in, might be more accurate as a description of what county planners hope to bring about.

Hurricane Macro

The numbers for things Eke employment and taxable sales reflect an overall economic environment in which macroeconomic forces move through like weather fronts. The demise of the dot-com boom and a wave of corporate scandals have been answered by historically rock bottom interest rates and a huge tax cut for those in ownership positions. Expanded international trade has brought cheap goods, export opportunities and the threat of low-cost foreign production taking away markets and jobs. War often boosts spending, but also deficits. Any statistical temperature- taking has to be viewed with caution, when there are so many opportunities for the spent remains of federal hurricanes to blow in.

That said, some of the indicators seem to show Bennington County is holding its own, at the very least.

"The Vermont unemployment rate remained unchanged in July following a month when the state had the fifth lowest rate in the country," said a Vermont Department of Employment & Training release on August 19. "Although there was a pause in job growth this month, recent gains show we are on the path to a sustainable expansion."

DET Commissioner Anne Ginevan was still upbeat in mid-September, though the overall state rate of 3.4 percent for August was up a tenth of a percent from July (these numbers sometimes shift a bit when later data improves on first estimates). "Job statistics rebounded in August due to stronger than usual growth in many summer activities," she said. "The improvement helped to keep Vermont's unemployment rate among the lowest in the country."

And Bennington County's share of this? For the Bennington-Manchester labor market, the rate was 3.3 percent in August, the same as July, compared with 4.6 percent last August. That was not as good as for Barre-Montpelier, Brattleboro, Hartford, and Middlebury, but the figure was better than for Enosburg, Morristown-Stowe, Newport, Randolph, Rutland, St Johnsbury and Springfield.

Between 2002 and 2003, for the county as a whole, meals taxes were up a half percent and ranked seventh in the state. Rooms taxes were up 1.12 percent, ranked sixth. Alcohol receipts were a half percent up, in sixth place statewide.

But the figures for gross retail sales in the two years showed a much bigger jump, of 5.4 percent for the county. In Vermont as a whole, that number was down in nine counties, up in five. To glance ahead at what will be discussed more fully in talking about the real estate market, a vigorous second home sector may have helped to keep the sales figures higher.

Making It

Manufacturing has been a troubled sector nationally and in Vermont. But while this year hasn't been without its losses for Bennington County, overall there have been some important rebounds and major positive changes in longterm prospects.

On the down side, last year Wallace Computing Services (Wallace Moore) in Manchester was in the news because the Vermont Economic Progress Council had offered them $160,000 in tax credits over the next five years to help prevent the loss of approximately 90 jobs. The hope had been that the job total would grow by 25, due to company consolidating of efforts in Vermont.

This year's headlines were that the plant, now under RR Donnelly & Sons Co. ownership, was closing, and that 97 workers from Bennington and Rutland Counties would lose their jobs. The plant had produced business forms, and the ownership said that the excellence of the local workforce couldnt overcome the way former customers were choosing to pay their bills online or print their own forms.

US Tsubaki closed its Bennington branch, announcing late in 2003 that those 70 jobs would be lost. In the Shield Drive industrial park, Miller Building Systems closed, though their facility was then taken over by Doxsee Roofing.

But Peter Odierna, who has moved up to be executive director of the Bennington County Industrial Corporation now that Lance Matteson has moved on to head the (soon to be discussed) Bennington Microtechnology Center, said that in general things are looking better. No huge influx of jobs, yet, but with many companies doing a little hiring, the area is "starting to show evidence that the economy is indeed picking up.

As for small business, that sector .tends to be a lagging economic indicator," Odierna said. But BCIC, with its incubator space and a staff member dedicated to such enterprises, is starting to get prospective business plans - detailed plans for specialized companies that may have a better chance than most startups of finding secure niches. In that regard, "What I'm seeing in Bennington County is very impressive," he said.

But returning to the major employers, Odierna ticked off some of the developments that point toward a positive trend:

* Mack Molding laid off 100 people about a year ago, collateral damage from the dot-com debacle, but shifted their focus to include medical as well as computer industry injected molded plastic parts, and began working with metal components as well. Odierna said, "Slowly but steadily they're recovering." They've added a small. number of employees and look like they will be hiring some more, he said.

* Vermont Composites has taken part in a growth in demand for carbon fiber products, and may be expanding operations into the former Bijur plant, in the process ending what many saw as a threat that a Wal-Mart superstore might occupy the location.

* Tansitor Electronics, taken over by electronics industry power Vishay, has stayed on a steady course, in part because they have a niche in creating extremely stress-resistant tantalum capacitors.

* National Hanger continues, against all odds, to produce a low-technology commodity product (clothes hangers) and succeed in parlaying its quality into customer accounts.

* Orvis, with a new flagship store opening in the past year, has done well.

* Mace, bought by a carwash company that in the past few years has made more of its profits from carwashes than from personal security products, is "in the sweet spot" due to escalating concern about terrorism, Odierna said.

* Energizer continues to rely on the Bennington plant to be the world's largest provider of button batteries.

* NSK has added new lines, which have helped send profits to a record level.

* In the Shield Drive industrial park, Miller Building Systems closed, but then their facility was taken over by Doxsee Roofing.