Christian dvd rental

since June 2003, consumers have been consistently choosing DVD over VHS, according to the Encino, CA-based Video Software Dealers Association. They have not only been renting more DVDs, but buying more as well. To meet the rising demand over the past few years, studios have been scrambling to get more titles, old and new, on the video store shelves. Thus, the DVD industry has been thriving in the past few years, essentially immune to a troubled economy that has plagued much of the post industry.

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But will this trend continue? These DVD authors looked into their crystal ball and answered these and other questions as they look to 2004.

JEFF STABENAU

Principal, Blink Digital (www.blinkdigital.com), NYC

STRENGTHS: "The most significant area of business that's been increasing for me, and likely to continue in 2004, is television material going to DVD. There's been a lot of that in the past couple years, but it's really starting to kick in now.

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"Another strength I see developing is in enhancements and special features for DVD. By that I mean innovative DVD games that can sustain interest and may be educational-based or corporate training-based or related to a movie. There have been a couple of breakthroughs recently so the games can be much more complex and additional content will continue to develop."

WEAKNESSES: "If there's a weakness, it's that the music business is still in the process of settling on how they want to use DVD. DVD is doing well in music overall but they still haven't settled on a format, is it DVD-A? Is it SACD [a high-resolution audio format that can play stereo and surround and could be played in a SACD player or a regular CD player]? Is it DVD-Video? DVD is potentially great for the music industry, either as an enhancement with video or as a replacement for CD. I do think there will be a replacement format for the CD, and DVD can provide that with 5.1 mixing and going from 16-bit to 24-bit. But nothing has been settled and consumers are going to stay away until there's clear message from the marketplace."

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OPPORTUNITIES: "The biggest opportunity out there is to replace CDs. I look at CDs as being in the middle of the pack. On the low end you have the downloadable music and the higher end you have a replacement format like DVD. So eventually I see the CDs moving away and consumers will have a choice between the low and high end. The problem with CD technology is that it's too close to what's available on downloads. The quality's not a heck of a lot better and you don't have all the enhancements you have on DVD. That's the biggest opportunity for DVD and that literally could happen in 2004."

THREATS: "Video on Demand chips away at DVDs on some level. It's not a big threat but it does cut into some people's trips to the video store. Especially with the functions that Time-Warner Cable has now where you can pause it, rewind it and watch it anytime you want. So that certainly will steal away some DVD dollars but that's only for the blockbuster movies."

OUTLOOK 2004: "In 2004 I see the downward trend ending. We're part of the Ascent Media parent company and we're in the same building as other post companies and it seems from them and the other people I've talked to that business has been picking up and generally the economy has turned around for them in the past few months."

CHRISTIAN GERARD

President, Chroma Titles (www.chromatitles.com), LA

STRENGTHS: "Going forward into 2004 I see the strengths being DVD HD. That format is going to be decided on soon, and that's going to be a big thing next year. We're hoping that we'll start doing titles as soon as the standard is set. They're still deciding between Blue Laser, Red Laser, MPEG-2 or MPEG-4, but from what I've heard the standard should be decided by January. It will start slow. There's only going to be a certain amount of titles the first year and then it's going to grow and grow.

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"We're waiting to find out whether we're going to need new hardware as far as new boards to encode--new MPEG-4 boards or just modified MPEG-2 boards. Also, there's supposed to be a revision of the normal standard DVD to incorporate more interactive DVD functions with the DVD player connected to the Internet. With special decks you can browse Internet sites related to the DVD. Some of the authoring tools already have these interactive authoring tools built in them, and I expect that's going to be used a lot more in 2004 and will grow."

WEAKNESSES: "The only weakness has to do with the players. A consumer can go out and buy a title and put it in the machine and it can still have glitches. The players now are much better than they were a year ago and they'll be a lot better a year from now. The biggest complaint I get is that DVDs are not as fool proof as VHS. With DVD you can get weird anomalies."

OPPORTUNITIES: "DVD HD is the big thing. We're just waiting for the gun and we'll be off and running. We're trying to position ourselves to be one of the first companies that will be able to go out and do that. We're going to have to get an HD player and some monitors so everything will have to be upgraded to HD, some of which we've done already. There will also have to be some sort of HD proofing software that comes out. Upgrading to a new Digi Beta deck too that can handle HD. It's an expensive upgrade all around but it will be well worth it for the years of revenue that will be coming in."

THREATS: "The biggest threat is the Pay-Per-View movies that could take a chunk out of the DVD market. With Pay-Per-View, now you can view anything at anytime, fast forward, pause, rewind. But I doubt it will make too much of an impact because I still think people want to have things in their hands that are tangible; they want to be able to lend it out to people.

OUTLOOK 2004: "For the [DVD industry] business has been good. It's not exactly Teflon-proof but it hasn't been hit nearly as bad as the other segments of the industry. I think 2004 is going to be a better year. DVD players are selling like hotcakes. We're sort of coming to the point where almost everything has been done but DVD HD is on the horizon."

CHIP EBERHART

Freelance DVD Author, Chicago

STRENGTHS: "With the huge penetration of players and low-cost authoring tools for consumers, we will continue to see acceptance of DVD by the consumer. It's a very solid format that's only going to continue to replace VHS. The complaint used to be that users couldn't record to DVDs, but now with a PC and $50 software you can burn your own DVD. So as the format continues to become more popular it will translate into more titles, things that haven't been done before, more education titles and more and more it will become the delivery medium for more niche markets.

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"I'm seeing a larger demand in music titles. So while the number of movie titles will probably stay the same, in 2004 we will see considerably more music-oriented titles based on artists' concerts and music festivals. DVD-A is not going to take off in 2004 like DVD-Video took off in recent years. With DVD-V consumers got better picture and sound, while DVD-Audio is all about the music, and I don't see consumers in 2004 switching players and spending $30 for a DVD-A title."

WEAKNESSES: "There's a dual-sided sword. With the proliferation of easily obtainable DVD tools, we've outgrown the copy protection in the media, so it's going to be tougher to fight piracy with these new tools available to consumers. The only way to combat that is more compelling content, more complex titles and more attention to quality.

"Also, I don't think these new high-density discs, like the Blue Laser technology Sony is pushing, are going to take off for quite some time. Many people just bought their first DVD player last year, and I don't think consumers are ready to go out and buy a new player that can handle these new discs."

OPPORTUNITIES: "In some ways, the opportunities are closing up because there is the perception that anyone can author a DVD with simple tools. The reality is that the true professional will be able to remain successful as long as they pay attention to their craft and present better quality in terms of encoding, design, scripting and complexity of the titles."